Tipping points, tough truths, and the case for hope

The path ahead is turbulent, but far from predetermined. For investors operating in complexity, this is not a time for business-as-usual assumptions.

Professor Tim Lenton’s closing session captured this well. If we understand feedback loops in both nature and society, we can design interventions that deliver more than incremental improvement. Think of EV adoption gaining traction in Norway (helped along, famously, by the band A-ha), or declining meat consumption in the UK is already showing visible impacts on land use. These are not theoretical. They are already underway.

That said, none of this will be easy. Some of the most powerful sessions explored the very real obstacles to meaningful change. Political polarisation, public backlash, institutional inertia; these forces are actively working against transformation. And in many cases, the systems we rely on for food, finance, and energy are far more fragile than they appear.

This is where alternative investment managers, allocators, and risk professionals should be paying close attention. Our models, our capital, and our assumptions all shape what becomes possible. Actuaries in particular are trained to think across time horizons and risk dimensions, and we now have to bring that thinking into the realm of opportunity. As one speaker put it, the question is no longer whether we can avoid disruption entirely, but how we build strategies that are resilient enough to work through it.

In investment terms, this is less about sentiment and more about positioning, identifying where systems are nearing transition and aligning capital to capture, or accelerate, that shift. We need to identify early signals that systems are primed for positive tipping and support them with clear, coordinated effort. Whether it is a shift in consumer behaviour, a policy breakthrough, or a change in governance approach, these moments matter.

I left the conference with a deeper understanding of the challenges, but also with a renewed commitment to act. The insights apply directly to the work done by the financial services industry, especially when it comes to investment, risk, and strategy. The idea of a London-based follow-up event for professionals feels not only timely, but necessary. If it happens, I’ll be there – this time in person.

The path ahead is turbulent, but far from predetermined. For investors operating in complexity, this is not a time for business-as-usual assumptions. It is a time for systems thinking, adaptive strategy, and targeted conviction. And in that, there is opportunity and even optimism.